Italiani, guardate che luna

Continuano ad affiorare articoli che riportano come gli editorialisti stranieri, ad esempio del Financial Times, tifino fortemente per il sì, e paventino l’uscita dall’euro dell’Italia se vincerà il NO. 

Ora, capitemi. Qualcuno dirà che dato che loro rappresentano la finanza cattiva, il vostro interesse é fare l’esatto contrario. Questo non ha senso: l’interesse di tutti gli italiani, dal primo all’ultimo, é quantomeno correlato al fatto che la loro nazione non fallisca. 

Andiamo a vedere però che cosa significa ciò che dicono. 

Se si scomodano a lanciare appelli e avvertimenti, vuol dire che ritengono che l’Italia abbia urgente bisogno di riforme che non sono possibili nel corrente assetto istituzionale. 

Detto in altro modo: vi stanno dicendo che tutte le riforme di Monti, Letta e Renzi sono solo l’inizio. Ed in particolare, che le riforme che devono venire saranno tanto traumatiche da aver bisogno di un governo che può ignorare le proteste perché controlla il Parlamento con un singolo partito. 

Io credo si sbaglino, nel senso che immaginano sia possibile eleggere un partito fiscalmente responsabile, come ne esistono in tutta Europa. Ma in Italia no, non esiste, é ormai chiaro che hai solo sfumature diverse di clientelismo. Che il “chi vince prende tutto” dell’Italicum non può che peggiorare. Esattamente come stiamo vedendo in questa campagna, in cui siamo riusciti a vedere il Pd promettere il ponte sullo Stretto.

Ma il punto non è questo. Il punto è che se credete che mentano, ignorateli e votate come volete. 

Ma se credete che le loro preoccupazioni siano genuine, il 4 dicembre avete tutt’altro da fare che votare: 

Avete da spammare il vostro curriculum ad ogni datore di lavoro in Europa

Perché il NO continua il declino a meno di un miracolo di rinascita politica -ma lo scontento da cui il SÌ dovrebbe blindare l’ipotetico “governo delle riforme” (posto che vinca, poi), con ogni probabilità siete _anche voi_.

Pubblicato in Uncategorized | Lascia un commento

Italiani, guardate che luna

Continuano ad affiorare articoli che riportano come gli editorialisti stranieri, ad esempio del Financial Times, tifino fortemente per il sì, e paventino l’uscita dall’euro dell’Italia se vincerà il NO. 

Ora, capitemi. Qualcuno dirà che dato che loro rappresentano la finanza cattiva, il vostro interesse é fare l’esatto contrario. Questo non ha senso: l’interesse di tutti gli italiani, dal primo all’ultimo, é quantomeno correlato al fatto che la loro nazione non fallisca. 

Andiamo a vedere però che cosa significa ciò che dicono. 

Se si scomodano a lanciare appelli e avvertimenti, vuol dire che ritengono che l’Italia abbia urgente bisogno di riforme che non sono possibili nel corrente assetto istituzionale. 

Detto in altro modo: vi stanno dicendo che tutte le riforme di Monti, Letta e Renzi sono solo l’inizio. Ed in particolare, che le riforme che devono venire saranno tanto traumatiche da aver bisogno di un governo che può ignorare le proteste perché controlla il Parlamento con un singolo partito. 

Io credo si sbaglino, nel senso che immaginano sia possibile eleggere un partito fiscalmente responsabile, come ne esistono in tutta Europa. Ma in Italia no, non esiste, é ormai chiaro che hai solo sfumature diverse di clientelismo.

Ma il punto non è questo. Il punto è che se credete che mentano, ignorateli e votate come volete. 

Ma se credete che le loro preoccupazioni siano genuine, il 4 dicembre avete tutt’altro da fare che votare: 

Avete da spammare il vostro curriculum ad ogni datore di lavoro in Europa

Perché il NO continua il declino a meno di un miracolo di rinascita politica -ma lo scontento da cui il SÌ dovrebbe blindare l’ipotetico “governo delle riforme”, con ogni probabilità siete _anche voi_.

Pubblicato in Uncategorized | Lascia un commento

Making sense of the markets

I suspect the rally of the dollar is not due to expectation of growth under Trump.
It’s just that most of the world’s finance works in dollars.
So, it’s what uncertainty does: not having any idea on what will happen, asset managers try at least to minimize exchange rate risk -by repatriating assets.
Confirmed by the fact that the Sterling is the other currency gaining strength, despite the lack of progress on how the actual future of Britain will look like -but the currency it is the other master of finance markets, and people who have to repay pounds to investors will prefer to hold pounds.
 
It explains the fall in bonds across the board in Europe (including Germany). It’s not increased risk of default or inflation: it’s just Americans selling.
Which, by the way, would make European bonds an attractive investment for people who think in Euro instead.
But of course, what The Donald said, what he actually wants, what his own Republicans will allow him to do, and what is actually possible in reality, are different planets alien to each other for now. Until the dust of their collision settles down, literally everything is a huge risk.
Just make sure to remember where your towel is, and don’t panic -too much.
towel
Pubblicato in Uncategorized | Lascia un commento

Learning to speak

Remember the “pussy grab” scandal? 
It genuinely seemed it would be the end of Trump. 

And back then I wrote

So, apparently a sex-themed scandal is the only way to save America from voting suicidal economic and social policies.

I should be happy, voters perfectly agreed with me -attacking a person’s private morals is not the way to fight his ideas! 

Particularly from a supposedly progressive party!

Tump attached free trade. Clinton just answered that he and his core supporters were “deplorable”. Which is perfectly true –but it’s not an answer! If you support NAFTA, then I want you to see a convinced and convincing argument on why it’s good for the country. No trace on this on the media. Same for the stance on Russia.

The line was “put up with my policies, there is no alternative”. Voters took it as a dare –and by God, on this they were right!

Maybe now America will wake up from this moralistic orgy, where “progressives” think they can just take down everyone they don’t like by the way of scandals. And we’ll go back to discussing facts. …maybe.

But in the meantime, Trump. Enjoy.

This is the most worrying lesson for Europe, too. Most people advocating a change of treaties clearly inadequate have just been branded “populists”, and that was it. They usually are, but it doesn’t matter: if that’s the only argument we can put forward for the EU, then people wearing our contempt with pride will soon find the nation is with them. And Brexit will repeat over and over until nothing’s left.

Pubblicato in Uncategorized | Lascia un commento

The Russian empty cartridge

Now, I’m not saying that all is good. It’s not. The American voters are fucked up. I am convinced they would have voted Hitler, if he was a contestant. 

But he wasn’t. And maybe, just maybe, the new President isn’t that bad at all.

Why I say that? 

Because just look at this: 

So, in order: 

  • He praises Hillary Clinton for her hard work as a worthy opponent
  • He actually praises Hillary for her service to the country as a Secretary of State
  • He appeals to national unity, pledging to be “President of all America”
  • He asks for help from the people who opposed him.
  • He underlines how his supporters are “men and women” of “all races and beliefs“.
  • He repeats his usual gargantuan promises -in the most generic and bland terms imaginable.
  • He pledges to be friendly to all foreign nations
  • The rest of the speech is dedicated to thanking his family and staff

…can you feel the lol of relief? 

Sure -those are just words. 

But they are not the words we expect from him! Where’s the Wall? And wasn’t Hillary a literal criminal 24 hours ago? And by the way, doesn’t God deserve a little credit -after what is almost an actual miracle?

Just compare that with any of his previous performances! 

He might be acting. But at this point, he could as well have been acting before. And just have dropped the mask abruptly, now that he doesn’t need it any more. Intelligent people can play for fools after all; not the reverse. 

Don’t worry, he will do some horrible things. He has to, or some of his loving supporters might just blow his head off. It’s not like he cares about right or wrong, anyway. I’m not deluded about that.

But if he’s not actually crazy, then he will probably not crash the world economy, or or cause WWIII. At this point, that is the optimistic scenario. 

And, there might even be positive sides.

I’m still not condoning voting like this -even in case it turns out ok. Americans played Russian roulette with themselves and the world. Sooner or later, you do get a bullet to the head. 

But maybe not this time. 

Pubblicato in Uncategorized | Lascia un commento

Antisemitic UNESCO

In the last days, the Internet was aflame with the “antisemitic decision” trying to “deny Israel’s connection with the Temple Mount”. 

Not quite. If you actually read, it’s denouncing alleged restrictions caused by Israel on Muslim worship in the mosque there. I have no idea if the claim is true (UNESCO seems to think so, but maybe it was indeed a politicized vote). Still. I don’t get the outcry.

The document only speaks specifically of the Arab worship and claim (after anyway remarking that the site is sacred to all three Abrahamitic religions) because that’s what it is taking about. Of course the Jews have their own claim. It seems to me that nobody is mentioning it, _because that in no danger whatsoever_. Israelis are in full military control. Isn’t it all a bit like those guys wondering why there isn’t a Pride Parade for straight people?

Premier Netanyahu added that 

“To say that Israel has no connection to the Temple Mount and the Western Wall is like saying that China has no connection to the Great Wall of China and that Egypt has no connection to the Pyramids.”

Now, I’m Italian. And I’m standing in view of the Coliseum right now. 

And yes, it’s amazing to think that the Roman civilization was once here. 

But I’ll be the first to say that we’re not the same people whose idea of fun was to make slaves fight to death in those pits. 

The world has changed, and us with it. For the better, mostly. 

The last time we felt a “deep connection” to those stones, come to think of it, wasn’t that much ago. But it didn’t end well for us. It also ended even worse for Jews. 

Maybe it’s time to leave thousands years old myths to rest.

Pubblicato in Uncategorized | Lascia un commento

Losers wanted

​If Italy got out of the Euro now and devalued 30%, those who are not in a position to ask for a raise would take an about 10% real pay cut; but they would be the ones whose work was at risk and they would be trading the lower wages for a lower risk of being fired, so it might be even acceptable. Of course the real problem is that there would be a reduction in foreign investment.

But the UK devaluing 30%, from a situation of near full employment; AND at the same time restricting immigration? That’s a very strange situation. Probably unprecedented. 

With so little unused capacity, even without a strong union action, nearly everyone will be able to negotiate a pay raise to keep up with inflation. 

But that means a spiral wages-inflation; with higher wages the national products aren’t more competitive, so the huge commercial deficit doesn’t get reduced (and can even increase, as many products, i.e. oil, don’t decrease in consumption proportionally to price) causing more devaluation. Rinse and repeat; inflation would virtually never stop.

So, something has to give. Where will the system snap? 

One option: savings. If the monetary and fiscal policy are kept expansive to help the economy, the fixed yield bonds outstanding now will be eaten by inflation. 
On the other end: if rates are raised and budget tightened to stop the fall, investment and the homeownining market will be the ones crushed.

Of course, the state can redirect money where he pleases. If they decide people with a surname starting in M will be taxed until the problem is solved, that will be it. 

But it has to be someone. 

Pubblicato in Uncategorized | Lascia un commento